Economy of China
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This article is about the economy of People's Republic of China. For the economy of Republic of China, see Economy of Taiwan. For the book, see The Chinese Economy: Transitions and Growth. For other uses, see Economy of China (disambiguation).
 | |
| Currency | Renminbi (RMB); Unit: Yuan (CNY) |
|---|---|
| Calendar year (1 January to 31 December) | |
Trade organisations
| WTO, APEC, G-20 and others |
| Statistics | |
| GDP | $11.38 trillion (nominal; 2016) $20.85 trillion (PPP; 2016)[1] |
| GDP rank | 2nd (nominal) / 1st (PPP) (2015) |
GDP growth
| 6.9% (2015)[2][a] |
GDP per capita
| $8,239 (nominal; 73rd; 2016) $15,095 (PPP; 84th; 2016)[1] |
GDP by sector
| agriculture: 9%, industry: 40.5%, services: 50.5% (2015)[4] |
| 1.4%(2015)[5] | |
Population belowpoverty line
| 5.1% (2015) |
| 46.2 (2015) | |
Labour force
| 807.202 million (1st; 2015)[6] |
Labour force by occupation
| agriculture: 29.5%, industry: 29.9%, services: 40.6% (2014) |
| Unemployment | 4.05% (2015)[7] |
Average gross salary
| $8,500, yearly (2015)[8] |
Main industries
| mining and ore processing, iron, steel, aluminum, and other metals, coal; textiles and apparel; petroleum; cement; chemicals; fertilizers; consumer products, including footwear, toys, and electronics; food processing; transportation equipment, including automobiles, rail cars and locomotives, ships, aircraft and other vehicles; telecommunication and industruial equipment; machinery; heavy engineering; commercial space launch vehicles, satellites |
| 90th (2015)[9] | |
| External | |
| Exports | $2.28 trillion (2015[10]) |
Export goods
| Electrical and other machinery, including data processing equipment, apparel, textiles, iron and steel, optical and medical equipment. As well as almost every single category of industrial products. |
Main export partners
|  United States 16.9% Hong Kong 15.5% Japan 6.4% South Korea 4.3% (2014 est.)[11] |
| Imports | $1.68 trillion (2015[10]) |
Import goods
| Electrical and other machinery, oil and mineral fuels, optical and medical equipment, metal ores, plastics, organic chemicals |
Main import partners
| South Korea 9.7% Japan 8.3% United States 8.1% Taiwan 7.8% Germany 5.4% Australia 5% (2014 est.)[12] |
FDI stock
| $1.3 trillion (2012)[13] |
Gross external debt
| $0.9 trillion (2013) |
| Public finances | |
 14.95% of GDP (2015 est.)[14] | |
| Revenues | $2.1 trillion (2013 est.) |
| Expenses | $2.3 trillion (2013 est.) |
| AA- (Domestic) AA- (Foreign) AA- (T&C Assessment) (Standard & Poor's)[15] | |
Foreign reserves
|  $3.3 trillion (1st; March 2015)[16] |
China's socialist market economy[17] is the world's second largest economy by nominal GDP,[1][18] and theworld's largest economy by purchasing power parity according to the IMF,[19] although China's National Bureau of Statistics rejects this claim.[20] Until 2015[21] China was the world's fastest-growing major economy, with growth rates averaging 10% over 30 years.[22] Due to historical and political facts of China's developing economy, China's public sector accounts for a bigger share of the national economy than the burgeoning private sector.[23][24]
China is a global hub for manufacturing, and is the largest manufacturing economy in the world as well as the largest exporter of goods in the world.[25] China is also the world's fastest growing consumer market and second largest importer of goods in the world.[26] China is a net importer of services products.[27]
China is the largest trading nation in the world and plays a vital role in international trade,[28] and has increasingly engaged in trade organizations and treaties in recent years. China became a member of the World Trade Organization in 2001.[29] China also has free trade agreements with several nations, including Australia,South Korea, ASEAN, New Zealand, Switzerland and Pakistan.[30]
On a per capita income basis, China ranked 72th by nominal GDP and 84th by GDP (PPP) in 2015, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The provinces in the coastal regions of China[31] tend to be moreindustrialized, while regions in the hinterland are less developed. As China's economic importance has grown, so has attention to the structure and health of the economy.[32][33]
To avoid the long-term socioeconomic cost [34] of environmental pollution in China,[35][36] it has been suggested by Nicholas Stern and Fergus Green of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment that the economy of China be shifted to more advanced industrial development with high-tech, low carbon emissions with better allocation of national resources to innovation and R&D for sustainable economic growth in order to reduce the impact of China's heavy industry. This is in accord with the planning goals of the central government.[37]
Xi Jinping’s Chinese Dream is described as achieving the "Two 100s": the material goal of China becoming a "moderately well-off society" by 2021, the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party, and the modernization goal of China becoming a fully developed nation by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic.[38]
The internationalization of the Chinese economy continues to affect the standardized economic forecast officially launched in China by the Purchasing Managers Index in 2005. At the start of the 2010s, China became the sole Asian nation to have a GDP (PPP) above the $10-trillion mark (along with the United States and the European Union).[39] As China's economy grows, so does China's Renminbi, which undergoes the process needed for itsinternationalization.[40] The economy of China has recently initiated Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in 2015.
China has been criticized by Western media for unfair trade practices, including artificial currency devaluation,intellectual property theft, protectionism, and local favoritism due to one-party oligopoly by the Communist Party of China with Socialism with Chinese characteristics.[41][42][43][44]
As of 2015 there was talk of a "slowing" Chinese economy, but that referred to a slowing of the rate of economic growth, not to a recession.[21] The slowdown manifested in industrial regions as excess capacity in basic industries such as coal, steel, and cement,[45] in the auto industry as reduced sale
Regional economies[edit]
See also: Metropolitan regions of China and List of cities in China
China's unequal transportation system—combined with important differences in the availability of natural andhuman resources and in industrial infrastructure—has produced significant variations in the regional economies of China.
Economic development has generally been more rapid in coastal provinces than in the interior, and there are large disparities in per capita income between regions. The three wealthiest regions are along the southeast coast, centered on the Pearl River Delta; along the east coast, centered on the Lower Yangtze River; and near the Bohai Gulf, in the Beijing–Tianjin–gregion. It is the rapid development of these areas that is expected to have the most significant effect on the Asian regional economy as a whole, and Chinese government policy is designed to remove the obstacles to accelerated growth in these wealthier regions.
- See also: List of administrative regions by GDP, List of administrative regions by GDP per capita, and List of cities by GDP per capita.
GDP by Administrative Division[edit]
Main article: List of Chinese administrative divisions by GDP
There are 33 administrative divisions in China. Below are the top administrative divisions in China ranked by GDP in 2014,[47] GDP was converted from CNY to USD using a FX rate of 6.1428 CNY/USD.[48]
| PPP: abbreviation of purchasing power parity; Nominal:CNY 6.1428 per US dollar; PPP: CNY 3.6192 per Intl. dollar (based on IMF WEO April 2015)[48] | ||||||||||||
| provinces | GDP(in millions) | GDP per capita | Mid-year population (given*1000) | |||||||||
| Rank | CN¥ | Nominal (US$) | PPP (intl$.) | real growth (%) | Share (%) | Rank | CN¥ | Nominal (US$) | PPP (intl$.) | Share (%) | ||
| Mainland China | 63,646,270 | 10,361,117 | 17,585,749 | 7.4 | 100 | 46,652 | 7,595 | 12,890 | 100 | 1,364,270 | ||
| Guangdong | 1 | 6,779,224 | 1,103,605 | 1,873,128 | 7.8 | 10.65 | 9 | 63,452 | 10,330 | 17,532 | 136 | 106,840 |
| Jiangsu | 2 | 6,508,832 | 1,059,587 | 1,798,417 | 8.7 | 10.23 | 4 | 81,874 | 13,329 | 22,622 | 175 | 79,498 |
| Shandong | 3 | 5,942,659 | 967,419 | 1,641,981 | 8.7 | 9.34 | 10 | 60,879 | 9,911 | 16,821 | 130 | 97,614 |
| Zhejiang | 4 | 4,015,350 | 653,668 | 1,109,458 | 7.6 | 6.31 | 5 | 72,967 | 11,878 | 20,161 | 156 | 55,030 |
| Henan | 5 | 3,493,938 | 568,786 | 965,390 | 8.9 | 5.49 | 24 | 34,808 | 5,667 | 9,618 | 75 | 100,377 |
| Hebei | 6 | 2,942,115 | 478,953 | 812,919 | 6.5 | 4.62 | 18 | 39,984 | 6,509 | 11,048 | 86 | 73,582 |
| Liaoning | 7 | 2,862,658 | 466,018 | 790,964 | 5.8 | 4.50 | 7 | 65,198 | 10,614 | 18,015 | 140 | 43,907 |
| Sichuan | 8 | 2,853,666 | 464,555 | 788,480 | 8.5 | 4.48 | 22 | 35,128 | 5,719 | 9,706 | 75 | 81,236 |
| Hubei | 9 | 2,736,704 | 445,514 | 756,163 | 9.7 | 4.30 | 13 | 47,124 | 7,671 | 13,020 | 101 | 58,075 |
| Hunan | 10 | 2,704,846 | 440,328 | 747,360 | 9.5 | 4.25 | 17 | 40,287 | 6,558 | 11,132 | 86 | 67,139 |
Hong Kong and Macau[edit]
In accordance with the One Country, Two Systems policy, the economies of the former British colony of Hong Kong, and Portuguese colony of Macau, are separate from the rest of China, and each other. Both Hong Kong and Macau are free to conduct and engage in economic negotiations with foreign countries, as well as participating as full members in various international economic organizations such as the World Customs Organization, the World Trade Organization and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, often under the names "Hong Kong, China" and "Macau, China".
- See also: Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (disambiguation) with Hong Kong and Macau.
Development[edit]
- See also: List of administrative divisions by Human Development Index (HDI).
China, having been through a long period of economic downturn before 1978, has recently become one of the world's major economic powers, following the implementation of economic reform from 1979. China shows a great development potential from its remarkable economic growth rate in these years.[citation needed]
China has in place the "five-year-plan" strategy in order to achieve continuous economic development. TheThirteenth Five-Year Plan (2016–2020) is currently being implemented.[citation needed]
Like Japan and South Korea before it, for nearly 30 years China has indeed been growing, thrusting its citizens into prosperity and its goods across the world. Between 1978 and 2005, China's per capita GDP had grown from $153 to $1284, while its current account surplus had increased over twelve-fold between 1982 and 2004, from $5.7 billion to $71 billion. During this time, China had also become an industrial powerhouse, moving beyond initial successes in low-wage sectors like clothing and footwear to the increasingly sophisticated production of computers, pharmaceuticals, and automobiles.[citation needed]
Just how long the trajectory could continue, however, remained unclear. According to the 11th five-year plan, China needed to sustain an annual growth rate of 8% for the foreseeable future. Only with such levels of growth, the leadership argued, could China continue to develop its industrial prowess, raise its citizen's standard of living, and redress the inequalities that were cropping up across the country. Yet no country had ever before maintained the kind of growth that China was predicting. Moreover, China had to some extent already undergone the easier parts of development. In the 1980s, it had transformed its vast and inefficient agricultural sector, freeing its peasants from the confines of central planning and winning them to the cause of reform. In the 1990s, it had likewise started to restructure its stagnant industrial sector, wooing foreign investors for the first time. These policies had catalysed the country's phenomenal growth. Instead, China had to take what many regarded as the final step toward the market, liberalizing the banking sector and launching the beginnings of a real capital market. According to an article in Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy authored by Mete Feridun of University of Greenwich Business School and his co-author Abdul Jalil from Wuhan University in China, financial development leads to a reduction in the income inequality in China.[50] This process, however, would not be easy. As of 2004, China's state-owned enterprises were still only partially reorganized, and its banks were dealing with the burden of over $205 billion (1.7 trillion RMB) in non-performing loans, monies that had little chance of ever being repaid. The country had a floating exchange rate, and strict controls on both the current and capital accounts.[citation needed]
In mid-2014 China announced it was taking steps to boost the economy, which at the time was running at a rate 7.4% per annum, but was slowing. The measures included plans to build a multi-tier transport network, comprising railways, roads and airports, to create a new economic belt alongside the Yangtze River.[51]
In 2024 China will become the world's largest economy, according to the global information provider IHS Inc. NYSE:IHS. "Over the next 10 years, China's economy is expected to rebalance toward more rapid growth in consumption, which will help the structure of the domestic economy," Rajiv Biswas, IHS chief Asia economist, said in a statement by the company based in Englewood, Colo.[52]
Regional development[edit]
 | ||
| The East Coast (with existing development programmes) | ||
| "Rise of Central China" | ||
| "Revitalize Northeast China" | ||
| "China Western Development" | ||
These strategies are aimed at the relatively poorer regions in China in an attempt to prevent widening inequalities:
- China Western Development, designed to increase the economic situation of the western provinces through capital investment and development of natural resources.
- Revitalize Northeast China, to rejuvenate the industrial bases in Northeast China. It covers the three provinces ofHeilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning, as well as the five eastern prefectures of Inner Mongolia.
- Rise of Central China Plan, to accelerate the development of its central regions. It covers six provinces: Shanxi, Henan,Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, and Jiangxi.
- Third Front, focused on the southwestern provinces.
Foreign investment abroad:
- Go Global, to encourage its enterprises to invest overseas.
Key national projects[edit]
The "West-to-East Electricity Transmission", the "West-to-East Gas Transmission", and the "South–North Water Transfer Project" are the government's three key strategic projects, aimed at realigning overall of 12 billion cu m per year. Construction of the "South-to-North Water Diversion" project was officially launched on27 December 2002 and completion of Phase I is scheduled for 2010; this will relieve serious water shortfall in northern China and realize a rational distribution of the water resources of the Yangtze, Yellow, Huaihe, and Haihe river valleys.
Macroeconomic trends[edit]
In January 1985, the State Council of China approved to establish a SNA (System of National Accounting), use the gross domestic product (GDP) to measure the national economy. China started the study of theoretical foundation, guiding, and accounting model etc., for establishing a new system of national economic accounting. In 1986, as the first citizen of the People's Republic of China to receive a Ph.D. in economics from an overseas country, Dr. Fengbo Zhang headedChinese Macroeconomic Research – the key research project of the seventh Five-Year Plan of China, as well as completing and publishing the China GDP data by China's own research. The summary of the above has been included in the book Chinese Macroeconomic Structure and Policy (1988) Editor: Fengbo Zhang, collectively authored by the Research Center of the State Council of China. This is the first GDP data which was published by China. The State Council of Chinaissued "The notice regarding implementation of System of National Accounting" in August 1992, the SNA system officially is introduced to China, replaced Soviet Union's MPS system, Western economic indicator GDP became China's most important economic indicator (WikiChina: China GDP, The First China GDP).
The table below shows the trend of the GDP of China at market prices estimated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) with figures in millions (Chinese yuan).[53][54] See also.[55] For purchasing power parity comparisons, the US dollar is exchanged at 2.05 CNY only.
| China's Historical GDP for 1978 - 2014[56] (Revison based on the 3rd Economic Census 2013[57]) | |||||||||||
| year | GDP | GDP per capita (GDPPC) based on mid-year population | Reference index | ||||||||
| GDP in billions | real growth (%) | GDPPC | real growth (%) | Mid-year population in millions | exchange rate 1 foreign currency to CNY | ||||||
| CNY | USD | PPP (Int$) | CNY | USD | PPP (Int$) | USD 1 | Int$ 1 (PPP) | ||||
| p2014 | 63,646.27 | 10,361.12 | 17,632.041 | 7.4 | 46,652 | 7,595 | 12,763 | 6.9 | 1,364.27 | 6.1428 | 3.6554 |
| 2013 | 58,801.88 | 9,494.59 | 16,185.93 | 7.7 | 43,320 | 6,995 | 11,924 | 7.2 | 1,357.38 | 6.1932 | 3.6329 |
| 2012 | 53,412.30 | 8,461.35 | 14,906.31 | 7.7 | 39,544 | 6,264 | 11,036 | 7.2 | 1,350.70 | 6.3125 | 3.5832 |
| 2011 | 48,412.35 | 7,495.56 | 13,810.40 | 9.5 | 36,018 | 5,577 | 10,275 | 9.0 | 1,344.13 | 6.4588 | 3.5055 |
| 2010 | 40,890.30 | 6,040.37 | 12,267.95 | 10.6 | 30,568 | 4,515 | 9,171 | 10.1 | 1,337.71 | 6.7695 | 3.3331 |
| 2009 | 34,562.92 | 5,059.72 | 10,716.19 | 9.2 | 25,963 | 3,801 | 8,050 | 8.7 | 1,331.26 | 6.8310 | 3.2253 |
| 2008 | 31,675.17 | 4,560.79 | 9,851.08 | 9.6 | 23,912 | 3,443 | 7,437 | 9.1 | 1,324.66 | 6.9451 | 3.2154 |
| 2007 | 26,801.94 | 3,524.72 | 8,837.65 | 14.2 | 20,337 | 2,675 | 6,706 | 13.6 | 1,317.89 | 7.6040 | 3.0327 |
| 2006 | 21,765.66 | 2,730.33 | 7,328.01 | 12.7 | 16,602 | 2,083 | 5,590 | 12.1 | 1,311.02 | 7.9718 | 2.9702 |
| 2005 | 18,589.58 | 2,269.32 | 6,403.58 | 11.3 | 14,259 | 1,741 | 4,912 | 10.7 | 1,303.72 | 8.1917 | 2.9030 |
| 2004 | 16,071.44 | 1,941.75 | 5,611.54 | 10.1 | 12,400 | 1,498 | 4,330 | 9.4 | 1,296.08 | 8.2768 | 2.8640 |
| 2003 | 13,656.46 | 1,649.93 | 4,965.99 | 10.0 | 10,600 | 1,281 | 3,854 | 9.3 | 1,288.40 | 8.2770 | 2.7500 |
| 2002 | 12,100.20 | 1,461.91 | 4,446.80 | 9.1 | 9,450 | 1,142 | 3,473 | 8.4 | 1,280.40 | 8.2770 | 2.7211 |
| 2001 | 11,027.04 | 1,332.25 | 4,042.32 | 8.3 | 8,670 | 1,047 | 3,178 | 7.5 | 1,271.85 | 8.2770 | 2.7279 |
| 2000 | 9,977.63 | 1,205.26 | 3,645.86 | 8.4 | 7,902 | 955 | 2,887 | 7.6 | 1,262.65 | 8.2784 | 2.7367 |
| 1999 | 9,018.77 | 1,089.45 | 3,221.10 | 7.6 | 7,199 | 870 | 2,571 | 6.7 | 1,252.74 | 8.2783 | 2.7999 |
| 1998 | 8,488.37 | 1,025.28 | 2,922.39 | 7.8 | 6,835 | 826 | 2,353 | 6.8 | 1,241.94 | 8.2791 | 2.9046 |
| 1997 | 7,942.95 | 958.16 | 2,659.26 | 9.2 | 6,457 | 779 | 2,162 | 8.1 | 1,230.08 | 8.2898 | 2.9869 |
| 1996 | 7,157.23 | 860.84 | 2,373.24 | 9.9 | 5,878 | 707 | 1,949 | 8.8 | 1,217.55 | 8.3142 | 3.0158 |
| 1995 | 6,112.98 | 732.01 | 2,123.08 | 11.0 | 5,074 | 608 | 1,762 | 9.8 | 1,204.86 | 8.3510 | 2.8793 |
| 1994 | 4,845.96 | 562.26 | 1,870.88 | 13.1 | 4,066 | 472 | 1,570 | 11.8 | 1,191.84 | 8.6187 | 2.5902 |
| 1993 | 3,552.43 | 616.53 | 1,614.23 | 13.9 | 3,015 | 523 | 1,370 | 12.6 | 1,178.44 | 5.7620 | 2.2007 |
| 1992 | 2,706.83 | 490.85 | 1,412.23 | 14.3 | 2,324 | 421 | 1,212 | 12.9 | 1,164.97 | 5.5146 | 1.9167 |
| 1991 | 2,189.55 | 411.31 | 1,194.06 | 9.3 | 1,903 | 357 | 1,038 | 7.8 | 1,150.78 | 5.3233 | 1.8337 |
| 1990 | 1,877.43 | 392.51 | 1,058.84 | 3.9 | 1,654 | 346 | 933 | 2.4 | 1,135.19 | 4.7832 | 1.7731 |
| 1989 | 1,709.03 | 453.91 | 1,000.78 | 4.2 | 1,528 | 406 | 895 | 2.6 | 1,118.65 | 3.7651 | 1.7077 |
| 1988 | 1,510.11 | 405.71 | 923.67 | 11.3 | 1,371 | 368 | 838 | 9.5 | 1,101.63 | 3.7221 | 1.6349 |
| 1987 | 1,210.22 | 325.14 | 801.63 | 11.7 | 1,116 | 300 | 739 | 9.9 | 1,084.04 | 3.7221 | 1.5097 |
| 1986 | 1,030.88 | 298.56 | 700.18 | 8.9 | 966 | 280 | 656 | 7.3 | 1,066.79 | 3.4528 | 1.4723 |
| 1985 | 903.99 | 307.84 | 630.44 | 13.5 | 860 | 293 | 600 | 11.9 | 1,051.04 | 2.9366 | 1.4339 |
| 1984 | 722.63 | 310.54 | 538.15 | 15.2 | 697 | 300 | 519 | 13.7 | 1,036.83 | 2.3270 | 1.3428 |
| 1983 | 597.56 | 302.45 | 450.99 | 10.8 | 584 | 296 | 441 | 9.2 | 1,023.31 | 1.9757 | 1.3250 |
| 1982 | 533.30 | 281.80 | 391.07 | 9.0 | 529 | 279 | 388 | 7.4 | 1,008.63 | 1.8925 | 1.3637 |
| 1981 | 489.81 | 287.36 | 337.36 | 5.1 | 493 | 289 | 339 | 3.8 | 993.89 | 1.7045 | 1.4519 |
| 1980 | 455.16 | 303.76 | 293.29 | 7.9 | 464 | 310 | 299 | 6.5 | 981.24 | 1.4984 | 1.5519 |
| 1979 | 406.77 | 261.59 | 7.6 | 420 | 270 | 6.1 | 969.01 | 1.5550 | |||
| 1978 | 365.02 | 216.81 | 11.6 | 382 | 227 | 10.2 | 956.17 | 1.6836 | |||
Systemic issues and environment[edit]
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Main articles: Environment of China, Water supply and sanitation in the People's Republic of China and Public health in the People's Republic of China
The government has in recent years to struggled[citation needed] contain the social strife and environmental damage related to the economy's rapid transformation; collect public receipts due from provinces, businesses, and individuals; reduce corruption and other economic crimes; sustain adequate job growth for tens of millions of workers laid off from state-owned enterprises, migrants, and new entrants to the work force; and keep afloat the large state-owned enterprises, most of which had not participated in the vigorous expansion of the economy and many of which had been losing the ability to pay full wages and pensions.[citation needed] From 50 to 100 million surplus rural workers were adrift between the villages and the cities, many subsisting through part-time low-paying jobs. Popular resistance, changes in central policy, and loss of authority by rural cadres have weakened China's population control program.[citation needed]
Other major problems concern the labor force and the pricing system. There is large-scale underemployment in both urban and rural areas, and the fear of the disruptive effects of major, explicit unemployment is strong. The prices of certain key commodities, especially of industrial raw materials and major industrial products, are determined by the state. In most cases, basic price ratios were set in the 1950s and are often irrational[according to whom?] in terms of current production capabilities and demands. Over the years, large subsidies were built into the price structure, and these subsidies grew substantially in the late 1970s and 1980s.[58] By the early 1990s, these subsidies began to be eliminated, in large part due to China's admission into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, which carried with it requirements for further economic liberalization and deregulation.[citation needed]
By 2010, rapidly rising wages and a general increase in the standard of living had put increased energy use on a collision course with the need to reduce carbon emissions in order to control global warming. There were diligent efforts to increase energy efficiency and increase use of renewable sources; over 1,000 inefficient power plants had been closed, but projections continued to show a dramatic rise in carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels.[59]
National debt[edit]
Main article: National debt of China
The International Monetary Fund, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis[60] and other sources, such as the Article IV Consultation Reports,[61] state that, at the end of 2014, the "general government gross debt"-to-GDP ratio for China was 41.44 percent.[62] With China's 2014 GDP being US$ 10,356.508 trillion,[62][63] this makes the government debt of China approximately US$ 4.3 trillion.
By the mid-2010s, many analysts have expressed concern over the overall "size" of the Chinese government debt.[64][65][66] [67] Other analysts have pointed out the ostensibly "disproportionate" portion of local and provincial debt in the national debt of China,[68] and the alleged, "extensive" practice of shadow banking in China.[69]
Chinese authorities have dismissed analysts' worries, insisting that "the country still has room to increase government debt."[70] Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, earlier in 2016, commented that "the...debt pile facing China [is] an 'internal' problem, given the majority of the borrowings was issued in local currency.[71] Many economists have expressed the same views as Bernanke.[72]
Regulatory environment and tax system[edit]
Main article: Tax system in China
Though China's economy has expanded rapidly, its regulatory environment has not kept pace. Since Deng Xiaoping's open market reforms, the growth of new businesses has outpaced the government's ability to regulate them. This has created a situation where businesses, faced with mounting competition and poor oversight, take drastic measures to increase profit margins, often at the expense of consumer safety. This issue became more prominent in 2007, with a number of restrictions being placed on problematic Chinese exports by the United States.[73]
From the 1950s to the 1980s, the central government's revenues derived chiefly from the profits of the state enterprises, which were remitted to the state. Some government revenues also came from taxes, of which the most important was the general industrial and commercial tax.
The trend, however, has been for remitted profits of the state enterprises to be replaced with taxes on those profits. Initially, this tax system was adjusted so as to allow for differences in the market capitalization and pricing situations of various firms, but more-uniform tax schedules were introduced in the early 1990s. In addition,personal income and value-added taxes were implemented at that time.
Inflation[edit]
During the winter of 2007–2008, inflation ran about 7% on an annual basis, rising to 8.7% in statistics for February 2008, released in March 2008.[74][75][76]
Shortages of gasoline and diesel fuel developed in the fall of 2007 due to reluctance of refineries to produce fuel at low prices set by the state. These prices were slightly increased in November 2007 with fuel selling for $2.65 a gallon, still slightly below world prices. Price controls were in effect on numerous basic products and services, but were ineffective with food, prices of which were rising at an annual rate of 18.2% in November 2007.[77][78] The problem of inflation has caused concern at the highest levels of the Chinese government. On 9 January 2008, the government of China issued the following statement on its official website: "The Chinese government decided on Wednesday to take further measures to stabilize market prices and increase the severity of punishments for those guilty of driving up prices through hoarding or cheating."[79][80]
Pork is an important part of the Chinese economy with a per capita consumption of a fifth of a pound per day. The worldwide rise in the price of animal feed associated with increased production of ethanol from corn resulted in steep rises in pork prices in China in 2007. Increased cost of production interacted badly with increased demand resulting from rapidly rising wages. The state responded by subsidizing pork prices for students and the urban poor and called for increased production. Release of pork from the nation's strategic pork reserve was considered.[81]
By January 2008, the inflation rate rose to 7.1%, which BBC News described as the highest inflation rate since 1997, due to the winter storms that month.[82] China's inflation rate jumped to a new decade high of 8.7 percent in February 2008 after severe winter storms disrupted the economy and worsened food shortages, the government said 11 March 2008.[83] Throughout the summer and fall, however, inflation fell again to a low of 6.6% in October 2008.[84]
By November 2010, the inflation rate rose up to 5.1%, driven by an 11.7% increase in food prices year on year. According to the bureau, industrial output went up 13.3 percent. As supplies have run short, prices for fuel and other commodities have risen.[85]
Investment cycles[edit]
Chinese investment has always been highly cyclical.[86] Ever since the 1958 Great Leap Forward, growth in fixed capital formation has typically peaked about every five years. Recent peaks occurred in 1978, 1984, 1988, 1993, 2003, and 2009. The corresponding troughs were in 1981, 1986, 1989, 1997, and 2005.
In China, the majority of investment is carried out by entities that are at least partially state-owned. Most of these are under the control of local governments. Thus booms are primarily the result of perverse incentives at the local-government level.[87] Unlike entrepreneurs in a free-enterprise economy, Chinese local officials are motivated primarily by political considerations. As their performance evaluations are based, to a large extent, on GDP growth within their jurisdictions, they have a strong incentive to promote large-scale investment projects.[88][89] They also don’t face any real bankruptcy risk. When localities get into trouble, they are invariably bailed out by state-owned banks. Under these circumstances, overinvestment is inevitable.
A typical cycle begins with a relaxation of central government credit and industrial policy. This allows local governments to push investment aggressively, both through state-sector entities they control directly and by offering investment-promotion incentives to private investors and enterprises outside their jurisdictions.[90]The resulting boom puts upward pressure on prices and may also result in shortages of key inputs such as coal and electricity (as was the case in 2003).[91] Once inflation has risen to a level at which it begins to threaten social stability, the central government will intervene by tightening enforcement of industrial and credit policy. Projects that went ahead without required approvals will be halted. Bank lending to particular types of investors will be restricted. Credit then becomes tight and investment growth begins to decline.[92]
Eventually such centrally-imposed busts alleviate shortages and bring inflation down to acceptable levels. At that point, the central government yields to local-government demands for looser policy and the cycle begins again.
Financial and banking system[edit]
Main articles: Chinese financial system, Banking in China, Foreign exchange reserves of the People's Republic of China,Hedge fund industry in China and China Venture Capital Association
Most of China's financial institutions are state owned and governed and 98% of banking assets are state owned.[93] The chief instruments of financial and fiscal control are the People's Bank of China (PBC) and the Ministry of Finance, both under the authority of the State Council. The People's Bank of China replaced the Central Bank of China in 1950 and gradually took overprivate banks. It fulfills many of the functions of other central and commercial banks. It issues the currency, controls circulation, and plays an important role in disbursing budgetary expenditures. Additionally, it administers the accounts, payments, and receipts of government organizations and other bodies, which enables it to exert thorough supervision over their financial and general performances in consideration to the government's economic plans. The PBC is also responsible for international tradeand other overseas transactions. Remittances by overseas Chinese are managed by the Bank of China (BOC), which has a number of branch offices in several countries.
Other financial institutions that are crucial, include the China Development Bank (CDB), which funds economic development and directs foreign investment; theAgricultural Bank of China (ABC), which provides for the agricultural sector; the China Construction Bank (CCB), which is responsible for capitalizing a portion of overall investment and for providing capital funds for certain industrial and construction enterprises; and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), which conducts ordinary commercial transactions and acts as a savings bank for the public.
China's economic reforms greatly increased the economic role of the banking system. In theory any enterprises or individuals can go to the banks to obtain loans outside the state plan, in practice 75% of state bank loans go to State Owned Enterprises. (SOEs)[94] Even though nearly all investment capital was previously provided on a grant basis according to the state plan, policy has since the start of the reform shifted to a loan basis through the various state-directed financial institutions. It is estimated that, as of 2011, 14 trillion Yuan in loans were outstanding to local governments. Much of that total is believed by outside observers to be nonperforming.[95] Increasing amounts of funds are made available through the banks for economic and commercial purposes. Foreign sources of capital have also increased. China has received loans from the World Bank and several United Nations programs, as well as from countries (particularly Japan) and, to a lesser extent, commercial banks. Hong Kong has been a major conduit of this investment, as well as a source itself. On 23 February 2012, the PBC evinced its inclination to liberalise its capital markets when it circulated a telling ten-year timetable.[96] Following on the heels of this development, Shenzhen banks were able to launch cross-border yuan remittances for individuals, a significant shift in the PBC's capital control strictures since Chinese nationals had been previously barred from transferring their yuan to overseas account.[97]
With two stock exchanges (Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange), mainland China's stock market had a market value of $4.48 trillion as of November 2014, which makes it the second largest stock market in the world.[98]
In August 2013 creation of an as yet unnamed high-level body to gather and analyze financial information and trends was announced by the central government. The central bank would participate as would people from other organizations engaged in financial matters. It would not have direct regulatory authority, but would attempt to function at the highest professional level in order to provide appropriate guidance to regulators with respect to matters such as shadow banking which are potential sources of instability.[99] An article published in International Review of Economics & Finance in 2010 by Mete Feridun (University of Greenwich Business School) and his colleagues provide empirical evidence that financial development fosters economic growth in China.[100]
Stock markets[edit]
- See 2015 Chinese stock market crash for current events
As of 2014 and the first quarter of 2015 the financial industry had been providing about 1.5% of China's 7% annual growth rate.[102]
Despite slowing of the economy, as of June 2015 the Chinese stock index, the CSI 300 Index, which is based on 300 stocks traded in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, had risen nearly 150% over the past 12 months. In an effort to forestall damage from collapse of a possible economic bubble fueled by margin trading the central government raised requirements formargin lending. Economic damage from a crash in 2007-2008 was limited due to margin lending being highly restricted.[103] In early July, after a fall in the markets of nearly 30% from their June 12 highs, there were efforts by blue-chip, often state-owned, firms, the Chinese securities industry, and the central government to stabilize the market by buying back stock and increasing purchases of the stock of established firms; however, much of the volatility has been in smaller, less-established firms that had been heavily invested in by unsophisticated, often working class, investors who had purchased stock based solely on its rapid increase in valuation.[104] 80% of Chinese stocks are owned by individual investors, many novices.[105] As of July 10, 2015 efforts by the China Securities Finance Corporation, CFS, a firm created by China's commodities and stock exchanges to finance trades,[106] had apparently stabilized the market.[107][108] Major Chinese securities firms were required by the China Securities Regulatory Commission to buy, and hold, a substantial amount of securities affected by the downturn. Using funds supplied by the central bank and commercial banks the China Securities Finance Corporation purchased enough stocks to halt the slide acquiring as much as 5% of the stock in some firms. Lines of credit were extended by CFS to 21 securities firms, some of which also purchased up to 5% of some companies stocks. Some of the small cap stocks acquired may be overvalued.[106][109]
Chinese stocks fell about 10% during the last week of July 2015 with record breaking losses on Monday.[110]
Currency system[edit]
The renminbi ("people's currency") is the currency of China, denominated as the yuan, subdivided into 10 jiao or 100 fen. The renminbi is issued by the People's Bank of China, the monetary authority of China. The ISO 4217 abbreviation is CNY, although also commonly abbreviated as "RMB". As of 2005 the yuan was generally considered by outside observers to be undervalued by about 30-40%.[111][112]
The renminbi is held in a floating exchange-rate system managed primarily against the US dollar. On 21 July 2005, China revalued its currency by 2.1% against the US dollar and, since then has moved to an exchange rate system that references a basket of currencies and has allowed the renminbi to fluctuate at a daily rate of up to half a percent.
The rate of exchange (Chinese yuan per US$1) on 31 July 2008, was RMB 6.846, in mid-2007 was RMB 7.45, while in early 2006 was RMB 8.07:US $1=8.2793 yuan (January 2000), 8.2783 (1999), 8.2790 (1998), 8.2898 (1997), 8.3142 (1996), 8.3514 (1995).
There is a complex relationship between China's balance of trade, inflation, measured by the consumer price index and the value of its currency. Despite allowing the value of the yuan to "float", China's central bank has decisive ability to control its value with relationship to other currencies. Inflation in 2007, reflecting sharply rising prices for meat and fuel, is probably related to the worldwide rise in commodities used as animal feed or as fuel. Thus rapid rises in the value of the yuan permitted in December 2007 are possibly related to efforts to mitigate inflation by permitting the renminbi to be worth more.[113] An article published in International Review of Economics & Finance in 2010 by Mete Feridun (University of Greenwich Business School) and his colleagues provide empirical evidence that financial development fosters economic growth in China.[100]
During the week of August 10, 2015, against the background of a slowing Chinese economy and appreciation of the U.S. dollar, the People's Bank of China devalued the renminbi by about 5%.[114] The devaluation was accomplished by pegging the official rate to closing market rates. A market-based "representative" exchange rate against the U.S. dollar is one of the requirements for designation of a currency as one with Special Drawing Rights (SDR) by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), one of China's goals.[115] Since the late-2000s, China has sought to internationalize the renminbi. As of 2013, the RMB is the 8th most widely traded currency in the world.[116] In November 2015 in advance of G-20 and IMF meetings, IMF director Christine Lagarde announced her support for adding the yuan to the SDR currency basket. The announcement gave 'green-light' to official approval at the November 30 IMF meeting.[117]
Sectors[edit]
Agriculture[edit]
Main article: Agriculture in China
China is the world's largest producer and consumer of agricultural products – and some 300 million Chinese farm workers are in the industry, mostly laboring on pieces of land about the size of U.S farms. Virtually all arable land is used for food crops. China is the world's largest producer of rice and is among the principal sources ofwheat, corn (maize), tobacco, soybeans, potatoes, sorghum, peanuts, tea, millet,barley, oilseed, pork, and fish. Major non-food crops, including cotton, other fibers, and oilseeds, furnish China with a small proportion of its foreign trade revenue. Agricultural exports, such as vegetables and fruits, fish and shellfish, grain and meat products, are exported to Hong Kong. Yields are high because of intensive cultivation, for example, China's cropland area is only 75% of the U.S. total, but China still produces about 30% more crops and livestock than the United States (notwithstanding the State of California, which outproduces even the most productive Chinese farmlands by a three to one ratio). China hopes to further increase agricultural production through improved plant stocks, fertilizers, and technology.
According to the government statistics issued in 2005,[118] after a drop in the yield of farm crops in 2000, output has been increasing annually.
According to the United Nations World Food Program, in 2003, China fed 20 percent of the world's population with only 7 percent of the world's arable land.[119] China ranks first worldwide in farm output, and, as a result oftopographic and climatic factors, only about 10–15 percent of the total land area is suitable for cultivation. Of this, slightly more than half is unirrigated, and the remainder is divided roughly equally between paddy fields andirrigated areas. Nevertheless, about 60 percent of the population lives in the rural areas, and until the 1980s a high percentage of them made their living directly from farming. Since then, many have been encouraged to leave the fields and pursue other activities, such as light manufacturing, commerce, and transportation; and by the mid-1980s farming accounted for less than half of the value of rural output. Today, agriculture contributes only 13% of China's GDP.
Animal husbandry constitutes the second most important component of agricultural production. China is the world's leading producer of pigs, chickens, and eggs, and it also has sizable herds of sheep and cattle. Since the mid-1970s, greater emphasis has been placed on increasing the livestock output. China has a long tradition of ocean and freshwater fishing and of aquaculture. Pond raising has always been important and has been increasingly emphasized to supplement coastal and inlandfisheries threatened by overfishing and to provide such valuable export commodities as prawns.
Environmental problems such as floods, drought, and erosion pose serious threats to farming in many parts of the country. The wholesale destruction of forests gave way to an energetic reforestation program that proved inadequate, and forest resources are still fairly meagre.[120] The principal forests are found in the Qin Mountains and the central mountains and on the Sichuan–Yunnan plateau. Because they are inaccessible, the Qinling forests are not worked extensively, and much of the country's timber comes from Heilongjiang, Jilin, Sichuan, and Yunnan.
Western China, comprising Tibet, Xinjiang, and Qinghai, has little agricultural significance except for areas of floriculture andcattle raising. Rice, China's most important crop, is dominant in the southern provinces and many of the farms here yield twoharvests a year. In the north, wheat is of the greatest importance, while in central China wheat and rice vie with each other for the top place. Millet and kaoliang (a variety of grain sorghum) are grown mainly in the northeast and some central provinces, which, together with some northern areas, also provide considerable quantities of barley. Most of the soybean crop is derived from the north and the northeast; corn (maize) is grown in the center and the north, while tea comes mainly from the warm and humid hilly areas of the south. Cotton is grown extensively in the central provinces, but it is also found to a lesser extent in the southeast and in the north.Tobacco comes from the center and parts of the south. Other important crops are potatoes, sugar beets, and oilseeds.
There is still a relative lack of agricultural machinery, particularly advanced machinery. For the most part the Chinese peasant or farmer depends on simple, nonmechanized farming implements. Good progress has been made in increasing water conservancy, and about half the cultivated land is under irrigation.
In the late 1970s and early 1980s, economic reforms were introduced. First of all this began with the shift of farming work to asystem of household responsibility and a phasing out of collectivized agriculture. Later this expanded to include a gradual liberalization of price controls; fiscal decentralization; massive privatization of state enterprises, thereby allowing a wide variety of private enterprises in the services and light manufacturing; the foundation of a diversified banking system (but with large amounts of state control); the development of a stock market; and the opening of the economy to increased foreign trade andforeign investment.
Housing and construction[edit]
Main article: Real estate in China
The real estate industry is about 20% of the Chinese economy.[121]
Energy and mineral resources[edit]
Energy
Electricity:
Electricity:
- production: 2.8344 trillion kWh (2006)
- consumption: 2.8248 trillion kWh (2006)
- exports: 11.19 billion kWh (2005)
- imports: 5.011 billion kWh (2005)
Electricity – production by source:
- thermal: 77.8% (68.7% from coal) (2006)
- hydro: 20.7% (2006)
- other: 0.4% (2006)
- nuclear: 1.1% (2006)
Oil:
- production: 3,631,000 bbl/d (577,300 m3/d) (2005)
- consumption: 6,534,000 bbl/d (1,038,800 m3/d) (2005) and expected 9,300,000 bbl/d (1,480,000 m3/d) in 2030
- exports: 443,300 bbl/d (70,480 m3/d) (2005)
- imports: 3,181,000 bbl/d (505,700 m3/d) (2005)
- net imports: 2,740,000 barrels per day (436,000 m3/d) (2005)
- proved reserves: 16.3 Gbbl (2.59×109 m3) (1 January 2006)
Natural gas:
- production: 47.88 km3 (2005 est.)
- consumption: 44.93 km3 (2005 est.)
- exports: 2.944 km3 (2005)
- imports: 0 m3 (2005)
- proved reserves: 1,448 km3 (1 January 2006 est.)
See also: Energy policy of China
Since 1980, China's energy production has grown dramatically, as has the proportion allocated to domestic consumption. Some 80 percent of all power is generated from fossil fuel at thermal plants, with about 17 percent at hydroelectricinstallations; only about two percent is from nuclear energy, mainly from plants located in Guangdong and Zhejiang.[122]Though China has rich overall energy potential, most have yet to be developed. In addition, the geographical distribution of energy puts most of these resources relatively far from their major industrial users. Basically the northeast is rich in coaland oil, the central part of north China has abundant coal, and the southwest has immense hydroelectric potential. But the industrialized regions around Guangzhou and the Lower Yangtze region around Shanghai have too little energy, while there is relatively little heavy industry located near major energy resource areas other than in the southern part of the northeast.
China, due in large part to environmental concerns, has wanted to shift China's current energy mix from a heavy reliance on coal, which accounts for 70–75% of China's energy, toward greater reliance on oil, natural gas, renewable energy, andnuclear power. China has closed thousands of coal mines over the past five to ten years to cut overproduction. According to Chinese statistics, this has reduced coal production by over 25%.
Since 1993, China has been a net importer of oil, a large portion of which comes from the Middle East. Imported oil accounts for 20% of the processed crude in China. Net imports are expected to rise to 3.5 million barrels (560,000 m3) per day by 2010. China is interested in diversifying the sources of its oil imports and has invested in oil fields around the world. China is developing oil imports from Central Asia and has invested in Kazakhstani oil fields. Beijing also plans to increase China's natural gas production, which currently accounts for only 3% of China's total energy consumption and incorporated a natural gas strategy in its 10th Five-Year Plan (2001–2005), with the goal of expanding gas use from a 2% share of total energy production to 4% by 2005 (gas accounts for 25% of U.S. energy production). Analysts expect China's consumption of natural gas to more than double by 2010.
The 11th Five-Year Program (2006–10), announced in 2005 and approved by the National People's Congress in March 2006, called for greater energy conservation measures, including development of renewable energy sources and increased attention to environmental protection. Guidelines called for a 20% reduction in energy consumption per unit of GDP by 2010. Moving away from coal towards cleaner energy sources including oil, natural gas, renewable energy, and nuclear power is an important component of China's development program. Beijing also intends to continue to improve energy efficiency and promote the use of clean coal technology. China has abundant hydroelectric resources; the Three Gorges Dam, for example, will have a total capacity of 18 gigawatts when fully on-line (projected for 2009). In addition, the share of electricity generated by nuclear power is projected to grow from 1% in 2000 to 5% in 2030. China's renewable energy law, which went into effect in 2006, calls for 10% of its energy to come from renewable energy sources by 2020.
Mining[edit]
See also: Gold mining in China
Outdated mining and ore-processing technologies are being replaced with modern techniques, but China's rapid industrialization requires imports of minerals from abroad. In particular, iron ore imports from Australia and the United States have soared in the early 2000s as steel production rapidly outstripped domestic iron ore production. Also China has become increasingly active in several African countries to mine the reserves it requires for economic growth, particularly in countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Gabon.
The major areas of production in 2004 were coal (nearly 2 billion tons), iron ore (310 million tons), crude petroleum(175 million tons), natural gas (41 million cubic meters), antimony ore (110,000 tons), tin concentrates (110,000 tons),nickel ore (64,000 tons), tungsten concentrates (67,000 tons), unrefined salt (37 million tons), vanadium (40,000 tons), andmolybdenum ore (29,000 tons). In order of magnitude, produced minerals were bauxite, gypsum, barite, magnesite, talc and related minerals, manganese ore, fluorspar, and zinc. In addition, China produced 2,450 tons of silver and 215 tons of gold in 2004. The mining sector accounted for less than 0.9% of total employment in 2002 but produced about 5.3% of total industrial production.
Hydroelectric resources[edit]
China has an abundant potential for hydroelectric power production due to its considerable river network and mountainous terrain. Most of the total hydroelectric capacity is situated in the southwest of the country, where coal supplies are poor butdemand for energy is rising swiftly. The potential in the northeast is fairly small, but it was there that the first hydroelectric stations were built—by the Japanese during its occupation of Manchuria.[123] Due to considerable seasonal fluctuations inrainfall, the flow of rivers tends to drop during the winter, forcing many power stations to operate at less than normal capacity, while in the summer, on the other hand, floods often interfere with generation.
Thirteen years in construction at a cost of $24 billion, the immense Three Gorges Dam across the Yangtze River was essentially completed in 2006 and will revolutionize electrification and flood control in the area.
Coal[edit]
Main article: Coal power in the People's Republic of China
China is well endowed with mineral resources,[124] the most important of which is coal. China's mineral resources include large reserves of coal and iron ore, plus adequate to abundant supplies of nearly all other industrial minerals. Although coal deposits are widely scattered (some coal is found in every province), most of the total is located in the northern part of the country. The province of Shanxi, in fact, is thought to contain about half of the total; other important coal-bearing provinces include Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Jilin, Hebei, and Shandong.[125] Apart from these northern provinces, significant quantities of coal are present in Sichuan, and there are some deposits of importance in Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guizhou.[125]A large part of the country's reserves consists of good bituminous coal, but there are also large deposits of lignite. Anthraciteis present in several places (especially Liaoning, Guizhou, and Henan), but overall it is not very significant.[126]
To ensure a more even distribution of coal supplies and to reduce the strain on the less than adequate transportationnetwork, the authorities pressed for the development of a large number of small, locally run mines throughout the country. This campaign was energetically pursued after the 1960s, with the result that thousands of small pits have been established, and they produce more than half the country's coal. This output, however, is typically expensive and is used for local consumption. It has also led to a less than stringent implementation of safety measures in these unregulated mines, which cause several thousands of deaths each year.[127]
Coal makes up the bulk of China's energy consumption (70% in 2005), and China is the largest producer and consumer of coal in the world. As China's economy continues to grow, China's coal demand is projected to rise significantly. Although coal's share of China's overall energy consumption will decrease, coal consumption will continue to rise in absolute terms. China's continued and increasing reliance on coal as a power source has contributed significantly to putting China on the path to becoming the world's largest emitter of acid rain-causing sulfur dioxide and greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide.
As of 2015 falling coal prices resulted in layoffs at coal mines in the northeast.[128]
Oil and natural gas[edit]
Main article: Petroleum industry in the People's Republic of China
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